Business Cycle Watch:  The trend is in: the trade deficit is falling.  It is down 2.4% from last month, and trade is now solidly adding to GDP growth (1.3% of 3.8% total GDP growth last quarter).  Imports were down 0.4% and exports were up 0.4%, up for the sixth straight month, to a record.  The odds of avoiding near-term recession continue to rise.